Russia Forced To Reduce Submarines In Mediterranean Despite Risk Of Escalation In Ukraine
This morning a Russian Navy submarine sailed, on the surface, past Gibraltar where it exited the Mediterranean. The Pr.636.3 Improved-KILO class boat is likely heading to the Baltic for much needed maintenance. It is accompanied by a sea going tug, Sergey Balk.
This leaves just one KILO submarine in the Mediterranean.
This is bad timing from the Russian perspective. Together with the withdrawal of the SLAVA class cruiser Marshal Ustinov in August, it weakens their forces there. These are largely there as a counter and deterrence against NATO involvement in Ukraine. (Note: this is a point of Russian doctrine and naval strategy rather than a comment on the relative match-up between Russian and NATO forces.)
The Improved- KILO Class submarine passing Gibraltar, 08.45 local time on September 24, 2022. Photo Michael J Sanchez (Twitter)
Previously the prospect of direct NATO involvement, such as air strikes, receded rapidly at the outbreak of the war. So you could say that the submarine’s mission was already done, even if it was only a small part of that.
But with the Kremlin searching desperately for a magic bullet, Russia may find itself facing NATO aircraft carriers. There is a view that if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, as has been suggested, that the U.S. and / or NATO will be compelled to respond militarily. Possibly conventional strikes against Russian high-value assets in the Black Sea. Whatever the likihood, these are scenarios Moscow will be weiin up.
Russian Navy's Mediterranean Woes
This and other scenarios look more plausible to today than they did a month ago. It means that Russia may regret reducing its forces in the Mediterranean.
But it has to. The most likely explanation for the submarines departure is that it needs maintenance. There are insufficient facilities in Tartus, Syria where it is based.
The Submarine
The submarine is suspected to be Krasnodar, which has been in the Mediterranean for over a year, since August 2021. It was then returning to the Black sea following maintenance in the Baltic.
Krasnodar was expected to go to the Black Sea after a deployment in Syria (this is controversial under the Montreux Agreement, but for another time). However Turkey closed the Bosporus, connecting the Mediterranean to the Black Sea, to warships following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
So the submarine has instead had to return to the Baltic for maintenance. This is a useful reminder that the Mediterranean squadron does not have adequate facilities to be self-sufficient in submarine operations. Unlike the Black Sea for example.
Submarines are the backbone of Russian naval power. They are the most potent units, and submariners are (it is said) treated better than their surface skimming brothers. These things may not change, but like the Russian military in general, things look bleak.
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