SEVERODVINSK Class (Yasen) submarine
Russia’s Unseen Ukraine Build-Up: There are Probably Submarines In the Atlantic
When Russia moved a group of warships, led by the SLAVA Class cruiser Marshal Ustinov, from the Arctic to the North Atlantic it made the news. As did some ambitious landing ships which were sent to the Black Sea as part of ‘drills’. And a KILO Class submarine in yesterday, and so on. But these are not the only Russian Navy deployments that people should be thinking about.
It is likely that Russia has deployed nuclear-powered submarines to the North Atlantic. This is in addition to the previously reported naval movements related to the Ukraine build-up. These submarines will sit between the United States and Europe. And will be particularly relevant to the United Kingdom (and Ireland too).
This will be a major pain for NATO. While it is improbable that Russia seeks World War Three, deploying naval vessels to the North Atlantic will impede any NATO response to Russia's action in Ukraine. Britain in particular will have some difficult decisions.
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Russian Submarines: Competent Adversaries
Naturally we cannot be sure which submarines may be in the North Atlantic. That is the inherent advantage of submarine activities. NATO will likely know much more of course, but despite what you read the seas are far from transparent.
And Russian submarines are very good. Many are a bit older than their US Navy and Royal Navy equivalents, but they are new enough to be hard to detect. And they are well armed and competently operated. The last factor may be the most important in threat terms.
The post potent Russian submarine which might be involved the SEVERODVINSK Class. Popularly known by its Russian name, the Yasen class, this is the most modern and formidably armed Russian submarine. It is reputed to be the extremely stealthy too. Each of these submarines can carry 32 P-800 Oniks (SS-N-26 STROOBLE) supersonic missiles. Or smaller but longer ranged Kalibr cruise missiles. In both cases they can target either land or sea targets.
Original Viz. CLICK to enlarge.
The Sev’s are complimented by the older, but equally famous, OSCAR-II Class cruise missile submarines. These are currently armed with the massive 24 P-700 Granit (SS-N-19 SHIPWRECK) anti-ship cruise missiles. Although an older system, this still represents a serious threat to surface vessels.
As well as the cruise missile submarines, Russia’s fleet of nuclear powered attack submarines (SSNs) are also likely deployed. These are the AKULA and SIERRA-II classes, and last VICTOR-III class. These boats are principally armed with torpedoes.
The presence of even one of these submarines in the North Atlantic will be a cause for concern for NATO. Monitoring and countering a Sev or AKULA will tie up significant resources. And deter the already tiny and overstretched Royal Navy from deploying many of its assets east towards Ukraine.
OSINT offers a lot, but not everything
Virtually all of Russia's naval movements have to be viewed as part of a much larger strategic game between Russia and the West. Russia is prepositioning warships to complement its military build-up on land. The locations and actions may be thousands of miles away from Ukraine, but they are still part of it.
The Russian ships in the Atlantic, led by the SLAVA Class cruiser Marshal Ustinov, were tracked off-and-on via open sources. In early February planned exercises, in Ireland’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), caused some controversy. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) helped bring this topic to the public’s attention.
And OSINT played a major part in alerting the world that the main part of that Russian Force subsequently entered the Mediterranean. (Note that some Russian warships remain active off the UK and France). Likely Russia hoped that it would be the case, weaving OSINT breadcrumbs into posturing and information warfare. And possibly, down the road, misinformation and deception.
CLICK to enlarge. OSINT monitoring of activity at Russia's Northern Fleet submarine bases is more challenging during the winter due to cloud cover and darkness. However Sentinel 2 satellite imagery has recently resumed after the winter break. Observation of relevant submarine bases confirms a level of activity, Imagery from today of Gadzhiyevo. Note the submarine piers.
But OSINT has limited sources to tell you what is going on beneath the waves. But out of sight should not be out of mind.
OSINT can illuminate military build ups on land, and to a decent extent, at sea. It can find submarines on the surface in some cases and monitor the submarine situation in ports to some degree. The Mediterranean and Black Sea naval tracker shows part of this.
Yet I am confident enough that a submarine game is being played in the Atlantic right now. It’ll go unnoticed and unreported unless NATO navies, or maybe Russia, highlight it.
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Project 885 'YASEN' (Severodvinsk Class) SSGN. w/Cutaway
Project 949A/AM OSCAR-II Class Cruise Missile Submarine. w/Cutaway
Project 09852 Belgorod Special Mission submarine (spy sub). w/Cutaway