New OSINT Shows Changes At Whisun Reef
The latest tide of OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) from the South China Sea shows that most of China’s fishing vessels have vacated Whitsun Reef. The Sentinel-2 satellite imagery is from April 3 2021. The presence of over two hundred fishing vessels had caused considerable concern in the region.
But caution is needed in drawing a strong conclusion at this stage.
The reef is northeastern corner of the Spratly Islands which are in the eastern part of the South China Sea. It belongs to the Philippines although it is also claimed by China, who claim virtually the entirety of the South China Sea.
They are believed to be part of the Maritime Militia. Formally known as the People's Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM), it is a government funded militia. The PAFMM principally uses fishing boats, which can be called upon to operate in a way which furthers China's political or military goals .
We should be cautious reading too much into their apparent leaving. They are likely fishing in the area. Indeed several fishing vessels are seen in the vicinity, albeit far fewer than before. Yet they may already have returned after the satellite passed, or may in the future. Several vessels and floating structures are still present:
CLICK to enlarge.
Even unarmed fishing vessels can be seen as part of a hybrid warfare strategy if used in this way.
China may be seeking to establish a pattern of seemingly innocent and harmless behavior which, over time alters the ground truth on the reef. Future Philippine government efforts to evict or prevent them returning may spark for a wider confrontation.
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Beijing will likely deny involvement or interest in the actions of the PAFMM when it suits them. Yet jump to defend their previously disowned nationals if force is used.
One escalation track might see Chinese Coast Guard vessels being deployed to protect the fishermen. Although Coast Guard vessels are not equipped for a naval battle, they could be used to bait another navy into a bigger fight. If that is Beijing's desire.
So it is too early to conclude that this situation is over. We will see if, or when, the fishing boats return.
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